Home Price Increases Are Slowing

Home price increases will end up at 6.7 percent year-over-year before slowing to roughly 4.3 percent next year, on average, and eventually falling to 3.4 percent by 2018, a panel of more than 100 forecasters concluded. The Home Price Expectations Survey was conducted from Oct. 21, 2013 through Oct. 31, 2013 by Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of Zillow, Inc.The survey of 108 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists said appreciation is expected to remain strong through the remainder of this year, but the pace of home value growth is predicted to slow considerably. Based on current expectations for home value appreciation over the next five years, panelists predicted that overall U.S. home values could exceed their May 2007 peak by the first quarter of 2018. “Rising mortgage rates, diminished investor demand and slowly rising inventory are all contributing to a modest cooling off of the housing market, which is both expected and welcome after months of unsustainable, breakneck appreciation,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. By comparison, the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes, though they reached 10.1 percent year-over-year in the second quarter over 2012, are expected slow to an average of 5.4 percent across all U.S. markets by the end of this year. CoreLogic Case-Shiller projected that price appreciation will decelerate through the second half of 2013 and into the beginning of 2014.